|Title||Survey and consideration about relation between the magnitude of the main shock and elements of the foreshocks|
|Survey||Introduction||Though accurate prediction of earthquakes is one of unexplained parts of seismology, I wondered how I can contribute to exploring this area.|
|Method||I defined “M” as the value of the main shock’s magnitude, and “foreshock” as earthquakes which had occurred in the 30 days before the main shock, and is bigger than M2.0, and had occurred in a square area whose center was the main shock’s epicenter and whose diagonal line’s length is 2×10^(0.5*M-1.8)km (100km or less). Then I studied about relation between M and maximum value of foreshocks’ magnitude, and M and foreshock’s frequency.|
|Subject||Main shocks and its foreshocks which happened in Tohoku and Kanto regions after January 1, 2000, and whose magnitude was M6.5 or bigger.|
|Results||I couldn’t find out the relation between the variables.|
|Issues||・ Because I studied both normal activity and intense activity such as swarm earthquakes together, it became difficult finding out the relation between the variables.
|Action Plan|| ・ I’m going to follow contemporary mainstream of seismology, adopting the perspective of stochastic prediction.
・ I’m also going to tell others that we should take actions of disaster prevention based on the notion that “within technical strength we have now, we can’t predict earthquakes”.